Mário Pinto vs Ryan Spann
Prelims · Heavyweight · UFC
Official result
Mário Pinto def. Ryan Spann
TKO (punches) · Round 2 · imported automatically after the event
Mário Pinto
Record unlisted
- Age
- 30
- Height
- 180 cm
- Reach
- 183 cm
- Stance
- Orthodox
- Weight class
- Heavyweight
- Streak
- 5-fight win streak
- KO rate
- 30%
- Sub rate
- 23%
- Decision rate
- 47%
- Sig. strikes/min
- 4.6
- Strike accuracy
- 44%
- Takedown avg
- 3
- Takedown defense
- 71%
- Control time
- 4:10 / fight
- Opponent quality
- 75/100
Recent form
Ryan Spann
“Superman”
24-11-0
- Age
- 34
- Height
- 196 cm
- Reach
- 201 cm
- Stance
- Orthodox
- Weight class
- Heavyweight
- Streak
- Rebounding from a loss
- KO rate
- 19%
- Sub rate
- 54%
- Decision rate
- 27%
- Sig. strikes/min
- 2.4
- Strike accuracy
- 41%
- Takedown avg
- 4.2
- Takedown defense
- 79%
- Control time
- 0:46 / fight
- Opponent quality
- 73/100
Recent form
Raina's AI Analysis
Predicted winner
Mário Pinto
Confidence
70%
Predicted method
Decision
Predicted round
Distance (3 rounds)
Upset potential
Moderate
Risk level
Medium
Advantage model
Why Raina made this pick
Mário Pinto is the more complete all-rounder here, and the model gives that skill set the deciding weight over 3 rounds.
Ryan Spann's clearest path is forcing grappling exchanges and stealing rounds from top position - a live route, which is why confidence sits at 70%.
Reach, stance (Orthodox vs Orthodox) and pace history all point to a fight that goes to the officials.
AI-generated analysis. Raina Cruz is an AI fight analyst, not a human tipster. Nothing here is a guarantee of any outcome. Informational purposes only - gamble responsibly.
Lines & market comparison
Red corner
Mário Pinto
-300
- Market implied win %
- 75%
- Raina's model win %
- 70%
- Return on 100 staked
- +33
Bar shows the model, number above shows the market.
Blue corner
Ryan Spann
+270
- Market implied win %
- 27%
- Raina's model win %
- 30%
- Return on 100 staked
- +270
Bar shows the model, number above shows the market.
Model below market
-5 pts
Edge on Mário Pinto
- Raina's model
- 70%
- Market implied
- 75%
- at -300
- Gap (model − market)
- -5 pts
A positive gap means Raina rates Mário Pinto higher than the market does; a negative gap means the market is more confident than she is. This is a model-versus-market comparison for context only - not betting advice, and not a prediction of profit.
rounds total
Over/Under 1.5 rounds
Over
-125
55.6% implied
Under
+105
48.8% implied
Method & distance markets
- Pinto by KO/TKO+25927.9%
- Pinto by decision+18135.6%
- Spann by submission+33722.9%
- Fight goes the distance+11346.9%
Odds updated Updated
Lines shown are a captured consensus snapshot for comparison only. Prices move, and Cruz Control does not take, place or forward wagers. If gambling stops being fun, stop - support is available at 1-800-GAMBLER (US) or GamCare (UK).
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UFC · UFC Fight Night: Hooker vs. Parnasse
Saturday, September 5, 2026 · 12:00 AM UTC
Mário Pinto vs Ryan Spann
Prelims · Heavyweight
Raina's pick
Mário Pinto
70%
Method / round
Decision
Distance (3 rounds)
Line & edge
-300
75% implied · -5 pts
Raina Cruz is an AI analyst. Shared for information and discussion only - not betting advice.
Last verified . Imported by the automatic sync job.