Morgan Charrière vs Felipe Lima
Main Card · Featherweight · UFC
Official result
Felipe Lima def. Morgan Charrière
Decision (unanimous) (30-27, 30-27, 29-28) · Round 3 · imported automatically after the event
Morgan Charrière
Record unlisted
- Age
- 30
- Height
- 180 cm
- Reach
- 183 cm
- Stance
- Orthodox
- Weight class
- Featherweight
- Streak
- 2-fight win streak
- KO rate
- 39%
- Sub rate
- 26%
- Decision rate
- 35%
- Sig. strikes/min
- 4.3
- Strike accuracy
- 52%
- Takedown avg
- 1.9
- Takedown defense
- 77%
- Control time
- 1:42 / fight
- Opponent quality
- 60/100
Recent form
Felipe Lima
14-2-0
- Age
- 28
- Height
- 180 cm
- Reach
- 173 cm
- Stance
- Orthodox
- Weight class
- Featherweight
- Streak
- 3-fight win streak
- KO rate
- 26%
- Sub rate
- 28%
- Decision rate
- 46%
- Sig. strikes/min
- 3.1
- Strike accuracy
- 42%
- Takedown avg
- 3.9
- Takedown defense
- 76%
- Control time
- 2:44 / fight
- Opponent quality
- 56/100
Recent form
Raina's AI Analysis
Predicted winner
Felipe Lima
Confidence
71%
Predicted method
Decision
Predicted round
Distance (3 rounds)
Upset potential
Moderate
Risk level
Medium
Advantage model
Why Raina made this pick
Felipe Lima is the more complete wrestler here, and the model gives that skill set the deciding weight over 3 rounds.
Morgan Charrière's clearest path is forcing grappling exchanges and stealing rounds from top position - a live route, which is why confidence sits at 71%.
Reach, stance (Orthodox vs Orthodox) and pace history all point to a fight that goes to the officials.
AI-generated analysis. Raina Cruz is an AI fight analyst, not a human tipster. Nothing here is a guarantee of any outcome. Informational purposes only - gamble responsibly.
Lines & market comparison
Red corner
Morgan Charrière
+276
- Market implied win %
- 26.6%
- Raina's model win %
- 29%
- Return on 100 staked
- +276
Bar shows the model, number above shows the market.
Blue corner
Felipe Lima
-307
- Market implied win %
- 75.4%
- Raina's model win %
- 71%
- Return on 100 staked
- +33
Bar shows the model, number above shows the market.
Model below market
-4.4 pts
Edge on Felipe Lima
- Raina's model
- 71%
- Market implied
- 75.4%
- at -307
- Gap (model − market)
- -4.4 pts
A positive gap means Raina rates Felipe Lima higher than the market does; a negative gap means the market is more confident than she is. This is a model-versus-market comparison for context only - not betting advice, and not a prediction of profit.
rounds total
Over/Under 2.5 rounds
Over
+110
47.6% implied
Under
-135
57.4% implied
Method & distance markets
- Lima by KO/TKO+21431.8%
- Lima by decision+23130.2%
- Charrière by submission+54515.5%
- Fight goes the distance-98.3%
Odds updated Updated
Lines shown are a captured consensus snapshot for comparison only. Prices move, and Cruz Control does not take, place or forward wagers. If gambling stops being fun, stop - support is available at 1-800-GAMBLER (US) or GamCare (UK).
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UFC · UFC Fight Night: Hooker vs. Parnasse
Saturday, September 5, 2026 · 12:00 AM UTC
Morgan Charrière vs Felipe Lima
Main Card · Featherweight
Raina's pick
Felipe Lima
71%
Method / round
Decision
Distance (3 rounds)
Line & edge
-307
75.4% implied · -4.4 pts
Raina Cruz is an AI analyst. Shared for information and discussion only - not betting advice.
Last verified . Imported by the automatic sync job.