Renato Moicano vs Tom Nolan
Main Event · Lightweight · UFC
Renato Moicano
Record unlisted
- Age
- 37
- Height
- 180 cm
- Reach
- 183 cm
- Stance
- Orthodox
- Weight class
- Lightweight
- Streak
- 5-fight win streak
- KO rate
- 38%
- Sub rate
- 26%
- Decision rate
- 36%
- Sig. strikes/min
- 3.8
- Strike accuracy
- 49%
- Takedown avg
- 2.7
- Takedown defense
- 80%
- Control time
- 1:38 / fight
- Opponent quality
- 54/100
Recent form
Tom Nolan
“Big Train”
Record unlisted
- Age
- 26
- Height
- 188 cm
- Reach
- 185 cm
- Stance
- Orthodox
- Weight class
- Lightweight
- Streak
- 3-fight win streak
- KO rate
- 30%
- Sub rate
- 30%
- Decision rate
- 40%
- Sig. strikes/min
- 3.9
- Strike accuracy
- 52%
- Takedown avg
- 1.9
- Takedown defense
- 81%
- Control time
- 0:47 / fight
- Opponent quality
- 68/100
Recent form
Raina's AI Analysis
Predicted winner
Renato Moicano
Confidence
58%
Predicted method
Decision
Predicted round
Distance (5 rounds)
Upset potential
High
Risk level
High
Advantage model
Why Raina made this pick
Renato Moicano is the more complete all-rounder here, and the model gives that skill set the deciding weight over 5 rounds.
Tom Nolan's clearest path is forcing grappling exchanges and stealing rounds from top position - a live route, which is why confidence sits at 58%.
Reach, stance (Orthodox vs Orthodox) and pace history all point to a fight that goes to the officials.
AI-generated analysis. Raina Cruz is an AI fight analyst, not a human tipster. Nothing here is a guarantee of any outcome. Informational purposes only - gamble responsibly.
Lines & market comparison
Red corner
Renato Moicano
-216
- Market implied win %
- 68.4%
- Raina's model win %
- 58%
- Return on 100 staked
- +46
Bar shows the model, number above shows the market.
Blue corner
Tom Nolan
+199
- Market implied win %
- 33.4%
- Raina's model win %
- 42%
- Return on 100 staked
- +199
Bar shows the model, number above shows the market.
Model below market
-10.4 pts
Edge on Renato Moicano
- Raina's model
- 58%
- Market implied
- 68.4%
- at -216
- Gap (model − market)
- -10.4 pts
A positive gap means Raina rates Renato Moicano higher than the market does; a negative gap means the market is more confident than she is. This is a model-versus-market comparison for context only - not betting advice, and not a prediction of profit.
rounds total
Over/Under 1.5 rounds
Over
-125
55.6% implied
Under
+105
48.8% implied
Method & distance markets
- Moicano by KO/TKO+25728%
- Moicano by decision+27926.4%
- Nolan by submission+34222.6%
- Fight goes the distance+397.1%
Odds updated Updated
Lines shown are a captured consensus snapshot for comparison only. Prices move, and Cruz Control does not take, place or forward wagers. If gambling stops being fun, stop - support is available at 1-800-GAMBLER (US) or GamCare (UK).
Share this pick
UFC · UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Nolan
Saturday, October 31, 2026 · 12:00 AM UTC
Renato Moicano vs Tom Nolan
Main Event · Lightweight
Raina's pick
Renato Moicano
58%
Method / round
Decision
Distance (5 rounds)
Line & edge
-216
68.4% implied · -10.4 pts
Raina Cruz is an AI analyst. Shared for information and discussion only - not betting advice.
Last verified . Imported by the automatic sync job.