Aleksandre Topuria vs Santiago Luna
Prelims · Bantamweight · UFC
Aleksandre Topuria
“El Conquistador<ref name="Tapology">{{cite web |title=Aleksandre Topuria ("El Conquistador") MMA Fighter Page |url=https://www.tapology.com/fightcenter/fighters/100890-alex-topuria |website=Tapology |access-date=November 26”
Record unlisted
- Age
- 30
- Height
- 170 cm
- Reach
- 173 cm
- Stance
- Orthodox
- Weight class
- Bantamweight
- Streak
- 5-fight win streak
- KO rate
- 35%
- Sub rate
- 28%
- Decision rate
- 37%
- Sig. strikes/min
- 4.8
- Strike accuracy
- 49%
- Takedown avg
- 2
- Takedown defense
- 74%
- Control time
- 0:22 / fight
- Opponent quality
- 74/100
Recent form
Santiago Luna
“Border Boy”
Record unlisted
- Age
- 22
- Height
- 173 cm
- Reach
- 188 cm
- Stance
- Orthodox
- Weight class
- Bantamweight
- Streak
- Rebounding from a loss
- KO rate
- 40%
- Sub rate
- 26%
- Decision rate
- 34%
- Sig. strikes/min
- 4.3
- Strike accuracy
- 46%
- Takedown avg
- 1.8
- Takedown defense
- 67%
- Control time
- 4:34 / fight
- Opponent quality
- 60/100
Recent form
Raina's AI Analysis
Predicted winner
Aleksandre Topuria
Confidence
70%
Predicted method
Decision
Predicted round
Distance (3 rounds)
Upset potential
Moderate
Risk level
Medium
Advantage model
Why Raina made this pick
Aleksandre Topuria is the more complete all-rounder here, and the model gives that skill set the deciding weight over 3 rounds.
Santiago Luna's clearest path is forcing grappling exchanges and stealing rounds from top position - a live route, which is why confidence sits at 70%.
Reach, stance (Orthodox vs Orthodox) and pace history all point to a fight that goes to the officials.
AI-generated analysis. Raina Cruz is an AI fight analyst, not a human tipster. Nothing here is a guarantee of any outcome. Informational purposes only - gamble responsibly.
Lines & market comparison
Red corner
Aleksandre Topuria
-300
- Market implied win %
- 75%
- Raina's model win %
- 70%
- Return on 100 staked
- +33
Bar shows the model, number above shows the market.
Blue corner
Santiago Luna
+270
- Market implied win %
- 27%
- Raina's model win %
- 30%
- Return on 100 staked
- +270
Bar shows the model, number above shows the market.
Model below market
-5 pts
Edge on Aleksandre Topuria
- Raina's model
- 70%
- Market implied
- 75%
- at -300
- Gap (model − market)
- -5 pts
A positive gap means Raina rates Aleksandre Topuria higher than the market does; a negative gap means the market is more confident than she is. This is a model-versus-market comparison for context only - not betting advice, and not a prediction of profit.
rounds total
Over/Under 1.5 rounds
Over
-125
55.6% implied
Under
+105
48.8% implied
Method & distance markets
- Topuria by KO/TKO+15439.4%
- Topuria by decision+14940.2%
- Luna by submission+28126.2%
- Fight goes the distance+8354.6%
Odds updated Updated
Lines shown are a captured consensus snapshot for comparison only. Prices move, and Cruz Control does not take, place or forward wagers. If gambling stops being fun, stop - support is available at 1-800-GAMBLER (US) or GamCare (UK).
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UFC · UFC Fight Night: Procházka vs. Stirling
Saturday, November 21, 2026 · 12:00 AM UTC
Aleksandre Topuria vs Santiago Luna
Prelims · Bantamweight
Raina's pick
Aleksandre Topuria
70%
Method / round
Decision
Distance (3 rounds)
Line & edge
-300
75% implied · -5 pts
Raina Cruz is an AI analyst. Shared for information and discussion only - not betting advice.
Last verified . Imported by the automatic sync job.