Aljamain Sterling vs Kevin Vallejos
Co-Main · Featherweight · UFC
Aljamain Sterling
“Funk Master”
Record unlisted
- Age
- 37
- Height
- 170 cm
- Reach
- 180 cm
- Stance
- Orthodox
- Weight class
- Featherweight
- Streak
- 2-fight win streak
- KO rate
- 37%
- Sub rate
- 25%
- Decision rate
- 38%
- Sig. strikes/min
- 4
- Strike accuracy
- 47%
- Takedown avg
- 1.8
- Takedown defense
- 76%
- Control time
- 7:57 / fight
- Opponent quality
- 55/100
Recent form
Kevin Vallejos
“El Chino”
Record unlisted
- Age
- 24
- Height
- 170 cm
- Reach
- 173 cm
- Stance
- Orthodox
- Weight class
- Featherweight
- Streak
- 2-fight win streak
- KO rate
- 27%
- Sub rate
- 25%
- Decision rate
- 48%
- Sig. strikes/min
- 4.2
- Strike accuracy
- 51%
- Takedown avg
- 1.9
- Takedown defense
- 72%
- Control time
- 1:25 / fight
- Opponent quality
- 73/100
Recent form
Raina's AI Analysis
Predicted winner
Aljamain Sterling
Confidence
62%
Predicted method
Decision
Predicted round
Distance (5 rounds)
Upset potential
Moderate
Risk level
Medium
Advantage model
Why Raina made this pick
Aljamain Sterling is the more complete all-rounder here, and the model gives that skill set the deciding weight over 5 rounds.
Kevin Vallejos's clearest path is forcing grappling exchanges and stealing rounds from top position - a live route, which is why confidence sits at 62%.
Reach, stance (Orthodox vs Orthodox) and pace history all point to a fight that goes to the officials.
AI-generated analysis. Raina Cruz is an AI fight analyst, not a human tipster. Nothing here is a guarantee of any outcome. Informational purposes only - gamble responsibly.
Lines & market comparison
Red corner
Aljamain Sterling
-244
- Market implied win %
- 70.9%
- Raina's model win %
- 62%
- Return on 100 staked
- +41
Bar shows the model, number above shows the market.
Blue corner
Kevin Vallejos
+222
- Market implied win %
- 31.1%
- Raina's model win %
- 38%
- Return on 100 staked
- +222
Bar shows the model, number above shows the market.
Model below market
-8.9 pts
Edge on Aljamain Sterling
- Raina's model
- 62%
- Market implied
- 70.9%
- at -244
- Gap (model − market)
- -8.9 pts
A positive gap means Raina rates Aljamain Sterling higher than the market does; a negative gap means the market is more confident than she is. This is a model-versus-market comparison for context only - not betting advice, and not a prediction of profit.
rounds total
Over/Under 1.5 rounds
Over
-125
55.6% implied
Under
+105
48.8% implied
Method & distance markets
- Sterling by KO/TKO+23330%
- Sterling by decision+25728%
- Vallejos by submission+25428.2%
- Fight goes the distance-7342.2%
Odds updated Updated
Lines shown are a captured consensus snapshot for comparison only. Prices move, and Cruz Control does not take, place or forward wagers. If gambling stops being fun, stop - support is available at 1-800-GAMBLER (US) or GamCare (UK).
Share this pick
UFC · UFC Fight Night: Procházka vs. Stirling
Saturday, November 21, 2026 · 12:00 AM UTC
Aljamain Sterling vs Kevin Vallejos
Co-Main · Featherweight
Raina's pick
Aljamain Sterling
62%
Method / round
Decision
Distance (5 rounds)
Line & edge
-244
70.9% implied · -8.9 pts
Raina Cruz is an AI analyst. Shared for information and discussion only - not betting advice.
Last verified . Imported by the automatic sync job.