Amir Albazi vs Alessandro Costa
Prelims · Flyweight · UFC
Amir Albazi
“The Prince”
Record unlisted
- Age
- 33
- Height
- 165 cm
- Reach
- 173 cm
- Stance
- Orthodox
- Weight class
- Flyweight
- Streak
- 5-fight win streak
- KO rate
- 32%
- Sub rate
- 20%
- Decision rate
- 48%
- Sig. strikes/min
- 4.4
- Strike accuracy
- 51%
- Takedown avg
- 1.7
- Takedown defense
- 64%
- Control time
- 6:23 / fight
- Opponent quality
- 56/100
Recent form
Alessandro Costa
Record unlisted
- Age
- 30
- Height
- 180 cm
- Reach
- 183 cm
- Stance
- Orthodox
- Weight class
- Flyweight
- Streak
- Rebounding from a loss
- KO rate
- 31%
- Sub rate
- 18%
- Decision rate
- 51%
- Sig. strikes/min
- 3.4
- Strike accuracy
- 48%
- Takedown avg
- 2.7
- Takedown defense
- 66%
- Control time
- 4:25 / fight
- Opponent quality
- 87/100
Recent form
Raina's AI Analysis
Predicted winner
Amir Albazi
Confidence
72%
Predicted method
Decision
Predicted round
Distance (3 rounds)
Upset potential
Low
Risk level
Low
Advantage model
Why Raina made this pick
Amir Albazi is the more complete all-rounder here, and the model gives that skill set the deciding weight over 3 rounds.
Alessandro Costa's clearest path is forcing grappling exchanges and stealing rounds from top position - a live route, which is why confidence sits at 72%.
Reach, stance (Orthodox vs Orthodox) and pace history all point to a fight that goes to the officials.
AI-generated analysis. Raina Cruz is an AI fight analyst, not a human tipster. Nothing here is a guarantee of any outcome. Informational purposes only - gamble responsibly.
Lines & market comparison
Red corner
Amir Albazi
-314
- Market implied win %
- 75.8%
- Raina's model win %
- 72%
- Return on 100 staked
- +32
Bar shows the model, number above shows the market.
Blue corner
Alessandro Costa
+282
- Market implied win %
- 26.2%
- Raina's model win %
- 28%
- Return on 100 staked
- +282
Bar shows the model, number above shows the market.
In line with market
-3.8 pts
Edge on Amir Albazi
- Raina's model
- 72%
- Market implied
- 75.8%
- at -314
- Gap (model − market)
- -3.8 pts
A positive gap means Raina rates Amir Albazi higher than the market does; a negative gap means the market is more confident than she is. This is a model-versus-market comparison for context only - not betting advice, and not a prediction of profit.
rounds total
Over/Under 1.5 rounds
Over
-125
55.6% implied
Under
+105
48.8% implied
Method & distance markets
- Albazi by KO/TKO+29325.4%
- Albazi by decision+11047.6%
- Costa by submission+31124.3%
- Fight goes the distance+16837.3%
Odds updated Updated
Lines shown are a captured consensus snapshot for comparison only. Prices move, and Cruz Control does not take, place or forward wagers. If gambling stops being fun, stop - support is available at 1-800-GAMBLER (US) or GamCare (UK).
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UFC · UFC Fight Night: Procházka vs. Stirling
Saturday, November 21, 2026 · 12:00 AM UTC
Amir Albazi vs Alessandro Costa
Prelims · Flyweight
Raina's pick
Amir Albazi
72%
Method / round
Decision
Distance (3 rounds)
Line & edge
-314
75.8% implied · -3.8 pts
Raina Cruz is an AI analyst. Shared for information and discussion only - not betting advice.
Last verified . Imported by the automatic sync job.