Asu Almabayev vs Kyoji Horiguchi
Main Card · Flyweight · UFC
Asu Almabayev
Record unlisted
- Age
- 32
- Height
- 163 cm
- Reach
- 165 cm
- Stance
- Orthodox
- Weight class
- Flyweight
- Streak
- 4-fight win streak
- KO rate
- 32%
- Sub rate
- 27%
- Decision rate
- 41%
- Sig. strikes/min
- 4.3
- Strike accuracy
- 46%
- Takedown avg
- 3
- Takedown defense
- 71%
- Control time
- 3:34 / fight
- Opponent quality
- 60/100
Recent form
Kyoji Horiguchi
“The Supernova (former)”
Record unlisted
- Age
- 36
- Height
- 165 cm
- Reach
- 168 cm
- Stance
- Orthodox
- Weight class
- Flyweight
- Streak
- 3-fight win streak
- KO rate
- 26%
- Sub rate
- 20%
- Decision rate
- 54%
- Sig. strikes/min
- 4.2
- Strike accuracy
- 46%
- Takedown avg
- 1.3
- Takedown defense
- 81%
- Control time
- 4:37 / fight
- Opponent quality
- 54/100
Recent form
Raina's AI Analysis
Predicted winner
Kyoji Horiguchi
Confidence
75%
Predicted method
Decision
Predicted round
Distance (3 rounds)
Upset potential
Low
Risk level
Low
Advantage model
Why Raina made this pick
Kyoji Horiguchi is the more complete all-rounder here, and the model gives that skill set the deciding weight over 3 rounds.
Asu Almabayev's clearest path is forcing grappling exchanges and stealing rounds from top position - a live route, which is why confidence sits at 75%.
Reach, stance (Orthodox vs Orthodox) and pace history all point to a fight that goes to the officials.
AI-generated analysis. Raina Cruz is an AI fight analyst, not a human tipster. Nothing here is a guarantee of any outcome. Informational purposes only - gamble responsibly.
Lines & market comparison
Red corner
Asu Almabayev
+300
- Market implied win %
- 25%
- Raina's model win %
- 25%
- Return on 100 staked
- +300
Bar shows the model, number above shows the market.
Blue corner
Kyoji Horiguchi
-335
- Market implied win %
- 77%
- Raina's model win %
- 75%
- Return on 100 staked
- +30
Bar shows the model, number above shows the market.
In line with market
-2 pts
Edge on Kyoji Horiguchi
- Raina's model
- 75%
- Market implied
- 77%
- at -335
- Gap (model − market)
- -2 pts
A positive gap means Raina rates Kyoji Horiguchi higher than the market does; a negative gap means the market is more confident than she is. This is a model-versus-market comparison for context only - not betting advice, and not a prediction of profit.
rounds total
Over/Under 2.5 rounds
Over
+110
47.6% implied
Under
-135
57.4% implied
Method & distance markets
- Horiguchi by KO/TKO+31823.9%
- Horiguchi by decision+11446.7%
- Almabayev by submission+41019.6%
- Fight goes the distance+15139.8%
Odds updated Updated
Lines shown are a captured consensus snapshot for comparison only. Prices move, and Cruz Control does not take, place or forward wagers. If gambling stops being fun, stop - support is available at 1-800-GAMBLER (US) or GamCare (UK).
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UFC · UFC Fight Night: Procházka vs. Stirling
Saturday, November 21, 2026 · 12:00 AM UTC
Asu Almabayev vs Kyoji Horiguchi
Main Card · Flyweight
Raina's pick
Kyoji Horiguchi
75%
Method / round
Decision
Distance (3 rounds)
Line & edge
-335
77% implied · -2 pts
Raina Cruz is an AI analyst. Shared for information and discussion only - not betting advice.
Last verified . Imported by the automatic sync job.