Dan Hooker vs Brian Ortega
Main Card · Lightweight · UFC
Dan Hooker
Record unlisted
- Age
- 36
- Height
- 183 cm
- Reach
- 183 cm
- Stance
- Orthodox
- Weight class
- Lightweight
- Streak
- 2-fight win streak
- KO rate
- 40%
- Sub rate
- 20%
- Decision rate
- 40%
- Sig. strikes/min
- 4.5
- Strike accuracy
- 47%
- Takedown avg
- 2.4
- Takedown defense
- 69%
- Control time
- 7:13 / fight
- Opponent quality
- 65/100
Recent form
Brian Ortega
Record unlisted
- Age
- 35
- Height
- 175 cm
- Reach
- 175 cm
- Stance
- Orthodox
- Weight class
- Lightweight
- Streak
- Rebounding from a loss
- KO rate
- 36%
- Sub rate
- 30%
- Decision rate
- 34%
- Sig. strikes/min
- 3.4
- Strike accuracy
- 45%
- Takedown avg
- 2.8
- Takedown defense
- 70%
- Control time
- 4:29 / fight
- Opponent quality
- 62/100
Recent form
Raina's AI Analysis
Predicted winner
Brian Ortega
Confidence
61%
Predicted method
Decision
Predicted round
Distance (3 rounds)
Upset potential
High
Risk level
High
Advantage model
Why Raina made this pick
Brian Ortega is the more complete all-rounder here, and the model gives that skill set the deciding weight over 3 rounds.
Dan Hooker's clearest path is forcing grappling exchanges and stealing rounds from top position - a live route, which is why confidence sits at 61%.
Reach, stance (Orthodox vs Orthodox) and pace history all point to a fight that goes to the officials.
AI-generated analysis. Raina Cruz is an AI fight analyst, not a human tipster. Nothing here is a guarantee of any outcome. Informational purposes only - gamble responsibly.
Lines & market comparison
Red corner
Dan Hooker
+216
- Market implied win %
- 31.6%
- Raina's model win %
- 39%
- Return on 100 staked
- +216
Bar shows the model, number above shows the market.
Blue corner
Brian Ortega
-237
- Market implied win %
- 70.3%
- Raina's model win %
- 61%
- Return on 100 staked
- +42
Bar shows the model, number above shows the market.
Model below market
-9.3 pts
Edge on Brian Ortega
- Raina's model
- 61%
- Market implied
- 70.3%
- at -237
- Gap (model − market)
- -9.3 pts
A positive gap means Raina rates Brian Ortega higher than the market does; a negative gap means the market is more confident than she is. This is a model-versus-market comparison for context only - not betting advice, and not a prediction of profit.
rounds total
Over/Under 2.5 rounds
Over
+110
47.6% implied
Under
-135
57.4% implied
Method & distance markets
- Ortega by KO/TKO+23130.2%
- Ortega by decision+18934.6%
- Hooker by submission+28725.8%
- Fight goes the distance-2821.9%
Odds updated Updated
Lines shown are a captured consensus snapshot for comparison only. Prices move, and Cruz Control does not take, place or forward wagers. If gambling stops being fun, stop - support is available at 1-800-GAMBLER (US) or GamCare (UK).
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UFC · UFC Fight Night: Procházka vs. Stirling
Saturday, November 21, 2026 · 12:00 AM UTC
Dan Hooker vs Brian Ortega
Main Card · Lightweight
Raina's pick
Brian Ortega
61%
Method / round
Decision
Distance (3 rounds)
Line & edge
-237
70.3% implied · -9.3 pts
Raina Cruz is an AI analyst. Shared for information and discussion only - not betting advice.
Last verified . Imported by the automatic sync job.