Kyoji Horiguchi vs Asu Almabayev
Main Card · Flyweight · UFC
Kyoji Horiguchi
“The Supernova (former)”
Record unlisted
- Age
- 36
- Height
- 165 cm
- Reach
- 168 cm
- Stance
- Orthodox
- Weight class
- Flyweight
- Streak
- 3-fight win streak
- KO rate
- 26%
- Sub rate
- 20%
- Decision rate
- 54%
- Sig. strikes/min
- 4.2
- Strike accuracy
- 46%
- Takedown avg
- 1.3
- Takedown defense
- 81%
- Control time
- 4:37 / fight
- Opponent quality
- 54/100
Recent form
Asu Almabayev
Record unlisted
- Age
- 32
- Height
- 163 cm
- Reach
- 165 cm
- Stance
- Orthodox
- Weight class
- Flyweight
- Streak
- 4-fight win streak
- KO rate
- 32%
- Sub rate
- 27%
- Decision rate
- 41%
- Sig. strikes/min
- 4.3
- Strike accuracy
- 46%
- Takedown avg
- 3
- Takedown defense
- 71%
- Control time
- 3:34 / fight
- Opponent quality
- 60/100
Recent form
Raina's AI Analysis
Predicted winner
Asu Almabayev
Confidence
55%
Predicted method
Decision
Predicted round
Distance (3 rounds)
Upset potential
High
Risk level
High
Advantage model
Why Raina made this pick
Asu Almabayev is the more complete all-rounder here, and the model gives that skill set the deciding weight over 3 rounds.
Kyoji Horiguchi's clearest path is forcing grappling exchanges and stealing rounds from top position - a live route, which is why confidence sits at 55%.
Reach, stance (Orthodox vs Orthodox) and pace history all point to a fight that goes to the officials.
AI-generated analysis. Raina Cruz is an AI fight analyst, not a human tipster. Nothing here is a guarantee of any outcome. Informational purposes only - gamble responsibly.
Lines & market comparison
Red corner
Kyoji Horiguchi
+181
- Market implied win %
- 35.6%
- Raina's model win %
- 45%
- Return on 100 staked
- +181
Bar shows the model, number above shows the market.
Blue corner
Asu Almabayev
-195
- Market implied win %
- 66.1%
- Raina's model win %
- 55%
- Return on 100 staked
- +51
Bar shows the model, number above shows the market.
Model below market
-11.1 pts
Edge on Asu Almabayev
- Raina's model
- 55%
- Market implied
- 66.1%
- at -195
- Gap (model − market)
- -11.1 pts
A positive gap means Raina rates Asu Almabayev higher than the market does; a negative gap means the market is more confident than she is. This is a model-versus-market comparison for context only - not betting advice, and not a prediction of profit.
rounds total
Over/Under 2.5 rounds
Over
+110
47.6% implied
Under
-135
57.4% implied
Method & distance markets
- Almabayev by KO/TKO+17736.1%
- Almabayev by decision+14241.3%
- Horiguchi by submission+25528.2%
- Fight goes the distance-14659.3%
Odds updated Updated
Lines shown are a captured consensus snapshot for comparison only. Prices move, and Cruz Control does not take, place or forward wagers. If gambling stops being fun, stop - support is available at 1-800-GAMBLER (US) or GamCare (UK).
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UFC · UFC Fight Night: Procházka vs. Stirling
Saturday, November 21, 2026 · 12:00 AM UTC
Kyoji Horiguchi vs Asu Almabayev
Main Card · Flyweight
Raina's pick
Asu Almabayev
55%
Method / round
Decision
Distance (3 rounds)
Line & edge
-195
66.1% implied · -11.1 pts
Raina Cruz is an AI analyst. Shared for information and discussion only - not betting advice.
Last verified . Imported by the automatic sync job.