JJ Aldrich vs Regina Tarin
Prelims · Women's Flyweight · UFC
JJ Aldrich
15-7-0
- Age
- 33
- Height
- 165 cm
- Reach
- 183 cm
- Stance
- Southpaw
- Weight class
- Women's Flyweight
- Streak
- 2-fight win streak
- KO rate
- 20%
- Sub rate
- 28%
- Decision rate
- 52%
- Sig. strikes/min
- 3.9
- Strike accuracy
- 43%
- Takedown avg
- 3.8
- Takedown defense
- 74%
- Control time
- 5:12 / fight
- Opponent quality
- 60/100
Recent form
Regina Tarin
Record unlisted
- Age
- 30
- Height
- 180 cm
- Reach
- 183 cm
- Stance
- Orthodox
- Weight class
- Women's Flyweight
- Streak
- 5-fight win streak
- KO rate
- 28%
- Sub rate
- 22%
- Decision rate
- 50%
- Sig. strikes/min
- 3.6
- Strike accuracy
- 52%
- Takedown avg
- 2
- Takedown defense
- 68%
- Control time
- 0:55 / fight
- Opponent quality
- 66/100
Recent form
Raina's AI Analysis
Predicted winner
JJ Aldrich
Confidence
52%
Predicted method
Decision
Predicted round
Distance (3 rounds)
Upset potential
High
Risk level
High
Advantage model
Why Raina made this pick
JJ Aldrich is the more complete wrestler here, and the model gives that skill set the deciding weight over 3 rounds.
Regina Tarin's clearest path is forcing grappling exchanges and stealing rounds from top position - a live route, which is why confidence sits at 52%.
Reach, stance (Southpaw vs Orthodox) and pace history all point to a fight that goes to the officials.
AI-generated analysis. Raina Cruz is an AI fight analyst, not a human tipster. Nothing here is a guarantee of any outcome. Informational purposes only - gamble responsibly.
Lines & market comparison
Red corner
JJ Aldrich
-174
- Market implied win %
- 63.5%
- Raina's model win %
- 52%
- Return on 100 staked
- +57
Bar shows the model, number above shows the market.
Blue corner
Regina Tarin
+163
- Market implied win %
- 38%
- Raina's model win %
- 48%
- Return on 100 staked
- +163
Bar shows the model, number above shows the market.
Model below market
-11.5 pts
Edge on JJ Aldrich
- Raina's model
- 52%
- Market implied
- 63.5%
- at -174
- Gap (model − market)
- -11.5 pts
A positive gap means Raina rates JJ Aldrich higher than the market does; a negative gap means the market is more confident than she is. This is a model-versus-market comparison for context only - not betting advice, and not a prediction of profit.
rounds total
Over/Under 1.5 rounds
Over
-125
55.6% implied
Under
+105
48.8% implied
Method & distance markets
- Aldrich by KO/TKO+20233.1%
- Aldrich by decision+24828.7%
- Tarin by submission+36821.4%
- Fight goes the distance-1815.3%
Odds updated Updated
Lines shown are a captured consensus snapshot for comparison only. Prices move, and Cruz Control does not take, place or forward wagers. If gambling stops being fun, stop - support is available at 1-800-GAMBLER (US) or GamCare (UK).
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UFC · Noche UFC 4: Silva vs. Delgado
Saturday, September 12, 2026 · 12:00 AM UTC
JJ Aldrich vs Regina Tarin
Prelims · Women's Flyweight
Raina's pick
JJ Aldrich
52%
Method / round
Decision
Distance (3 rounds)
Line & edge
-174
63.5% implied · -11.5 pts
Raina Cruz is an AI analyst. Shared for information and discussion only - not betting advice.
Last verified . Imported by the automatic sync job.