Manon Fiorot vs Alexa Grasso
Main Card · Women's Flyweight · UFC
Manon Fiorot
“The Beast”
13-2-0
- Age
- 36
- Height
- 170 cm
- Reach
- 165 cm
- Stance
- Southpaw
- Weight class
- Women's Flyweight
- Streak
- 5-fight win streak
- KO rate
- 51%
- Sub rate
- 14%
- Decision rate
- 35%
- Sig. strikes/min
- 4.7
- Strike accuracy
- 46%
- Takedown avg
- 0.2
- Takedown defense
- 72%
- Control time
- 2:27 / fight
- Opponent quality
- 73/100
Recent form
Alexa Grasso
17-5-1
- Age
- 33
- Height
- 165 cm
- Reach
- 168 cm
- Stance
- Orthodox
- Weight class
- Women's Flyweight
- Streak
- 5-fight win streak
- KO rate
- 18%
- Sub rate
- 21%
- Decision rate
- 61%
- Sig. strikes/min
- 3.3
- Strike accuracy
- 46%
- Takedown avg
- 3.1
- Takedown defense
- 76%
- Control time
- 4:05 / fight
- Opponent quality
- 87/100
Recent form
Raina's AI Analysis
Predicted winner
Alexa Grasso
Confidence
55%
Predicted method
Decision
Predicted round
Distance (3 rounds)
Upset potential
High
Risk level
High
Advantage model
Why Raina made this pick
Alexa Grasso is the more complete wrestler here, and the model gives that skill set the deciding weight over 3 rounds.
Manon Fiorot's clearest path is landing early power before the fight settles - a live route, which is why confidence sits at 55%.
Reach, stance (Southpaw vs Orthodox) and pace history all point to a fight that goes to the officials.
AI-generated analysis. Raina Cruz is an AI fight analyst, not a human tipster. Nothing here is a guarantee of any outcome. Informational purposes only - gamble responsibly.
Lines & market comparison
Red corner
Manon Fiorot
+181
- Market implied win %
- 35.6%
- Raina's model win %
- 45%
- Return on 100 staked
- +181
Bar shows the model, number above shows the market.
Blue corner
Alexa Grasso
-195
- Market implied win %
- 66.1%
- Raina's model win %
- 55%
- Return on 100 staked
- +51
Bar shows the model, number above shows the market.
Model below market
-11.1 pts
Edge on Alexa Grasso
- Raina's model
- 55%
- Market implied
- 66.1%
- at -195
- Gap (model − market)
- -11.1 pts
A positive gap means Raina rates Alexa Grasso higher than the market does; a negative gap means the market is more confident than she is. This is a model-versus-market comparison for context only - not betting advice, and not a prediction of profit.
rounds total
Over/Under 2.5 rounds
Over
+110
47.6% implied
Under
-135
57.4% implied
Method & distance markets
- Grasso by KO/TKO+24928.7%
- Grasso by decision+27226.9%
- Fiorot by submission+60714.1%
- Fight goes the distance-5635.9%
Odds updated Updated
Lines shown are a captured consensus snapshot for comparison only. Prices move, and Cruz Control does not take, place or forward wagers. If gambling stops being fun, stop - support is available at 1-800-GAMBLER (US) or GamCare (UK).
Share this pick
UFC · Noche UFC 4: Silva vs. Delgado
Saturday, September 12, 2026 · 12:00 AM UTC
Manon Fiorot vs Alexa Grasso
Main Card · Women's Flyweight
Raina's pick
Alexa Grasso
55%
Method / round
Decision
Distance (3 rounds)
Line & edge
-195
66.1% implied · -11.1 pts
Raina Cruz is an AI analyst. Shared for information and discussion only - not betting advice.
Last verified . Imported by the automatic sync job.