Rafa García vs Rong Zhu
Prelims · Lightweight · UFC
Rafa García
Record unlisted
- Age
- 30
- Height
- 180 cm
- Reach
- 183 cm
- Stance
- Orthodox
- Weight class
- Lightweight
- Streak
- 5-fight win streak
- KO rate
- 36%
- Sub rate
- 24%
- Decision rate
- 40%
- Sig. strikes/min
- 4.1
- Strike accuracy
- 48%
- Takedown avg
- 2.8
- Takedown defense
- 68%
- Control time
- 5:31 / fight
- Opponent quality
- 87/100
Recent form
Rong Zhu
Record unlisted
- Age
- 30
- Height
- 180 cm
- Reach
- 183 cm
- Stance
- Orthodox
- Weight class
- Lightweight
- Streak
- 2-fight win streak
- KO rate
- 60%
- Sub rate
- 7%
- Decision rate
- 33%
- Sig. strikes/min
- 5.8
- Strike accuracy
- 55%
- Takedown avg
- 0.6
- Takedown defense
- 74%
- Control time
- 5:58 / fight
- Opponent quality
- 80/100
Recent form
Raina's AI Analysis
Predicted winner
Rong Zhu
Confidence
61%
Predicted method
Decision
Predicted round
Distance (3 rounds)
Upset potential
High
Risk level
High
Advantage model
Why Raina made this pick
Rong Zhu is the more complete striker here, and the model gives that skill set the deciding weight over 3 rounds.
Rafa García's clearest path is forcing grappling exchanges and stealing rounds from top position - a live route, which is why confidence sits at 61%.
Reach, stance (Orthodox vs Orthodox) and pace history all point to a fight that goes to the officials.
AI-generated analysis. Raina Cruz is an AI fight analyst, not a human tipster. Nothing here is a guarantee of any outcome. Informational purposes only - gamble responsibly.
Lines & market comparison
Red corner
Rafa García
+216
- Market implied win %
- 31.6%
- Raina's model win %
- 39%
- Return on 100 staked
- +216
Bar shows the model, number above shows the market.
Blue corner
Rong Zhu
-237
- Market implied win %
- 70.3%
- Raina's model win %
- 61%
- Return on 100 staked
- +42
Bar shows the model, number above shows the market.
Model below market
-9.3 pts
Edge on Rong Zhu
- Raina's model
- 61%
- Market implied
- 70.3%
- at -237
- Gap (model − market)
- -9.3 pts
A positive gap means Raina rates Rong Zhu higher than the market does; a negative gap means the market is more confident than she is. This is a model-versus-market comparison for context only - not betting advice, and not a prediction of profit.
rounds total
Over/Under 2.5 rounds
Over
+110
47.6% implied
Under
-135
57.4% implied
Method & distance markets
- Zhu by KO/TKO+14540.8%
- Zhu by decision+14540.8%
- García by submission+53515.7%
- Fight goes the distance+12444.6%
Odds updated Updated
Lines shown are a captured consensus snapshot for comparison only. Prices move, and Cruz Control does not take, place or forward wagers. If gambling stops being fun, stop - support is available at 1-800-GAMBLER (US) or GamCare (UK).
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UFC · Noche UFC 4: Silva vs. Delgado
Saturday, September 12, 2026 · 12:00 AM UTC
Rafa García vs Rong Zhu
Prelims · Lightweight
Raina's pick
Rong Zhu
61%
Method / round
Decision
Distance (3 rounds)
Line & edge
-237
70.3% implied · -9.3 pts
Raina Cruz is an AI analyst. Shared for information and discussion only - not betting advice.
Last verified . Imported by the automatic sync job.