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← Noche UFC 4: Silva vs. Delgado

Tim Elliott vs Édgar Cháirez

Prelims · Catchweight (130 lb) · UFC

Red cornerU.S.

Tim Elliott

21-14-1

Age
39
Height
170 cm
Reach
168 cm
Stance
Southpaw
Weight class
Flyweight
Streak
4-fight win streak
KO rate
10%
Sub rate
40%
Decision rate
50%
Sig. strikes/min
2.8
Strike accuracy
48%
Takedown avg
2.7
Takedown defense
79%
Control time
3:43 / fight
Opponent quality
61/100

Recent form

WWWWL

Recent fight history

    Full profile →
    Blue cornerMexico

    Édgar Cháirez

    14-6-0

    Age
    30
    Height
    170 cm
    Reach
    180 cm
    Stance
    Orthodox
    Weight class
    Flyweight
    Streak
    4-fight win streak
    KO rate
    17%
    Sub rate
    46%
    Decision rate
    37%
    Sig. strikes/min
    3.1
    Strike accuracy
    43%
    Takedown avg
    4
    Takedown defense
    70%
    Control time
    1:20 / fight
    Opponent quality
    59/100

    Recent form

    WWWWL

    Recent fight history

      Full profile →

      Raina's AI Analysis

      AI-generated
      On record since 2026-08-06

      Predicted winner

      Édgar Cháirez

      Confidence

      67%

      Predicted method

      Decision

      Predicted round

      Distance (3 rounds)

      Upset potential

      Moderate

      Risk level

      Medium

      Advantage model

      StrikingTim Elliott +13
      GrapplingÉdgar Cháirez +12
      WrestlingÉdgar Cháirez +13
      CardioTim Elliott +12
      ExperienceÉdgar Cháirez +10
      Fight IQTim Elliott +20

      Why Raina made this pick

      Édgar Cháirez is the more complete grappler here, and the model gives that skill set the deciding weight over 3 rounds.

      Tim Elliott's clearest path is forcing grappling exchanges and stealing rounds from top position - a live route, which is why confidence sits at 67%.

      Reach, stance (Southpaw vs Orthodox) and pace history all point to a fight that goes to the officials.

      AI-generated analysis. Raina Cruz is an AI fight analyst, not a human tipster. Nothing here is a guarantee of any outcome. Informational purposes only - gamble responsibly.

      Lines & market comparison

      Informational
      Odds updated Last updated

      Red corner

      Tim Elliott

      +252

      Market implied win %
      28.4%
      Raina's model win %
      33%
      Return on 100 staked
      +252

      Bar shows the model, number above shows the market.

      Blue corner

      Édgar Cháirez

      -279

      Market implied win %
      73.6%
      Raina's model win %
      67%
      Return on 100 staked
      +36

      Bar shows the model, number above shows the market.

      Model below market

      -6.6 pts

      Edge on Édgar Cháirez

      0%50%100%
      Raina's model
      67%
      Market implied
      73.6%
      at -279
      Gap (model − market)
      -6.6 pts

      A positive gap means Raina rates Édgar Cháirez higher than the market does; a negative gap means the market is more confident than she is. This is a model-versus-market comparison for context only - not betting advice, and not a prediction of profit.

      rounds total

      Over/Under 2.5 rounds

      Over

      +110

      47.6% implied

      Under

      -135

      57.4% implied

      Method & distance markets

      • Cháirez by KO/TKO+21731.5%
      • Cháirez by decision+14341.2%
      • Elliott by submission+25028.6%
      • Fight goes the distance-7342.2%

      Odds updated Updated

      Lines shown are a captured consensus snapshot for comparison only. Prices move, and Cruz Control does not take, place or forward wagers. If gambling stops being fun, stop - support is available at 1-800-GAMBLER (US) or GamCare (UK).

      Share this pick

      On record

      UFC · Noche UFC 4: Silva vs. Delgado

      Saturday, September 12, 2026 · 12:00 AM UTC

      Tim Elliott vs Édgar Cháirez

      Prelims · Catchweight (130 lb)

      Raina's pick

      Édgar Cháirez

      67%

      Method / round

      Decision

      Distance (3 rounds)

      Line & edge

      -279

      73.6% implied · -6.6 pts

      Raina Cruz is an AI analyst. Shared for information and discussion only - not betting advice.

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