Tommy McMillen vs Marwan Rahiki
Main Card · Featherweight · UFC
Tommy McMillen
Record unlisted
- Age
- 30
- Height
- 180 cm
- Reach
- 183 cm
- Stance
- Orthodox
- Weight class
- Featherweight
- Streak
- 5-fight win streak
- KO rate
- 32%
- Sub rate
- 19%
- Decision rate
- 49%
- Sig. strikes/min
- 3.5
- Strike accuracy
- 47%
- Takedown avg
- 1.9
- Takedown defense
- 68%
- Control time
- 1:48 / fight
- Opponent quality
- 78/100
Recent form
Marwan Rahiki
Record unlisted
- Age
- 30
- Height
- 180 cm
- Reach
- 183 cm
- Stance
- Orthodox
- Weight class
- Featherweight
- Streak
- 5-fight win streak
- KO rate
- 35%
- Sub rate
- 29%
- Decision rate
- 36%
- Sig. strikes/min
- 4.8
- Strike accuracy
- 51%
- Takedown avg
- 2.3
- Takedown defense
- 77%
- Control time
- 4:53 / fight
- Opponent quality
- 83/100
Recent form
Raina's AI Analysis
Predicted winner
Tommy McMillen
Confidence
76%
Predicted method
Decision
Predicted round
Distance (3 rounds)
Upset potential
Low
Risk level
Low
Advantage model
Why Raina made this pick
Tommy McMillen is the more complete all-rounder here, and the model gives that skill set the deciding weight over 3 rounds.
Marwan Rahiki's clearest path is forcing grappling exchanges and stealing rounds from top position - a live route, which is why confidence sits at 76%.
Reach, stance (Orthodox vs Orthodox) and pace history all point to a fight that goes to the officials.
AI-generated analysis. Raina Cruz is an AI fight analyst, not a human tipster. Nothing here is a guarantee of any outcome. Informational purposes only - gamble responsibly.
Lines & market comparison
Red corner
Tommy McMillen
-342
- Market implied win %
- 77.4%
- Raina's model win %
- 76%
- Return on 100 staked
- +29
Bar shows the model, number above shows the market.
Blue corner
Marwan Rahiki
+306
- Market implied win %
- 24.6%
- Raina's model win %
- 24%
- Return on 100 staked
- +306
Bar shows the model, number above shows the market.
In line with market
-1.4 pts
Edge on Tommy McMillen
- Raina's model
- 76%
- Market implied
- 77.4%
- at -342
- Gap (model − market)
- -1.4 pts
A positive gap means Raina rates Tommy McMillen higher than the market does; a negative gap means the market is more confident than she is. This is a model-versus-market comparison for context only - not betting advice, and not a prediction of profit.
rounds total
Over/Under 1.5 rounds
Over
-125
55.6% implied
Under
+105
48.8% implied
Method & distance markets
- McMillen by KO/TKO+17536.4%
- McMillen by decision+16837.3%
- Rahiki by submission+24628.9%
- Fight goes the distance+3375.2%
Odds updated Updated
Lines shown are a captured consensus snapshot for comparison only. Prices move, and Cruz Control does not take, place or forward wagers. If gambling stops being fun, stop - support is available at 1-800-GAMBLER (US) or GamCare (UK).
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UFC · Noche UFC 4: Silva vs. Delgado
Saturday, September 12, 2026 · 12:00 AM UTC
Tommy McMillen vs Marwan Rahiki
Main Card · Featherweight
Raina's pick
Tommy McMillen
76%
Method / round
Decision
Distance (3 rounds)
Line & edge
-342
77.4% implied · -1.4 pts
Raina Cruz is an AI analyst. Shared for information and discussion only - not betting advice.
Last verified . Imported by the automatic sync job.