Waldo Cortes-Acosta vs Curtis Blaydes
Main Card · Heavyweight · UFC
Waldo Cortes-Acosta
“Salsa Boy”
17-3-0
- Age
- 34
- Height
- 193 cm
- Reach
- 198 cm
- Stance
- Orthodox
- Weight class
- Heavyweight
- Streak
- 5-fight win streak
- KO rate
- 55%
- Sub rate
- 11%
- Decision rate
- 34%
- Sig. strikes/min
- 4.5
- Strike accuracy
- 45%
- Takedown avg
- 0.6
- Takedown defense
- 61%
- Control time
- 5:25 / fight
- Opponent quality
- 64/100
Recent form
Curtis Blaydes
“Razor”
19-6-0
- Age
- 35
- Height
- 193 cm
- Reach
- 203 cm
- Stance
- Orthodox
- Weight class
- Heavyweight
- Streak
- 3-fight win streak
- KO rate
- 63%
- Sub rate
- 14%
- Decision rate
- 23%
- Sig. strikes/min
- 4.6
- Strike accuracy
- 55%
- Takedown avg
- 0.7
- Takedown defense
- 67%
- Control time
- 2:08 / fight
- Opponent quality
- 86/100
Recent form
Raina's AI Analysis
Predicted winner
Waldo Cortes-Acosta
Confidence
72%
Predicted method
TKO / KO
Predicted round
Round 2
Upset potential
Low
Risk level
Low
Advantage model
Why Raina made this pick
Waldo Cortes-Acosta is the more complete striker here, and the model gives that skill set the deciding weight over 3 rounds.
Curtis Blaydes's clearest path is landing early power before the fight settles - a live route, which is why confidence sits at 72%.
Reach, stance (Orthodox vs Orthodox) and pace history all point to a finish around round 2.
AI-generated analysis. Raina Cruz is an AI fight analyst, not a human tipster. Nothing here is a guarantee of any outcome. Informational purposes only - gamble responsibly.
Lines & market comparison
Red corner
Waldo Cortes-Acosta
-314
- Market implied win %
- 75.8%
- Raina's model win %
- 72%
- Return on 100 staked
- +32
Bar shows the model, number above shows the market.
Blue corner
Curtis Blaydes
+282
- Market implied win %
- 26.2%
- Raina's model win %
- 28%
- Return on 100 staked
- +282
Bar shows the model, number above shows the market.
In line with market
-3.8 pts
Edge on Waldo Cortes-Acosta
- Raina's model
- 72%
- Market implied
- 75.8%
- at -314
- Gap (model − market)
- -3.8 pts
A positive gap means Raina rates Waldo Cortes-Acosta higher than the market does; a negative gap means the market is more confident than she is. This is a model-versus-market comparison for context only - not betting advice, and not a prediction of profit.
rounds total
Over/Under 1.5 rounds
Over
-125
55.6% implied
Under
+105
48.8% implied
Method & distance markets
- Cortes-Acosta by KO/TKO+17037%
- Cortes-Acosta by decision+20932.4%
- Blaydes by submission+38020.8%
- Fight goes the distance+6859.5%
Odds updated Updated
Lines shown are a captured consensus snapshot for comparison only. Prices move, and Cruz Control does not take, place or forward wagers. If gambling stops being fun, stop - support is available at 1-800-GAMBLER (US) or GamCare (UK).
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UFC · Noche UFC 4: Silva vs. Delgado
Saturday, September 12, 2026 · 12:00 AM UTC
Waldo Cortes-Acosta vs Curtis Blaydes
Main Card · Heavyweight
Raina's pick
Waldo Cortes-Acosta
72%
Method / round
TKO / KO
Round 2
Line & edge
-314
75.8% implied · -3.8 pts
Raina Cruz is an AI analyst. Shared for information and discussion only - not betting advice.
Last verified . Imported by the automatic sync job.