Yousri Belgaroui vs Djorden Santos
Prelims · Middleweight · UFC
Yousri Belgaroui
“Baby Face Assassin”
10-3-0
- Age
- 34
- Height
- 196 cm
- Reach
- 183 cm
- Stance
- Orthodox
- Weight class
- Middleweight
- Streak
- 4-fight win streak
- KO rate
- 59%
- Sub rate
- 8%
- Decision rate
- 33%
- Sig. strikes/min
- 5
- Strike accuracy
- 51%
- Takedown avg
- 0.7
- Takedown defense
- 62%
- Control time
- 3:49 / fight
- Opponent quality
- 73/100
Recent form
Djorden Santos
Record unlisted
- Age
- 30
- Height
- 180 cm
- Reach
- 183 cm
- Stance
- Orthodox
- Weight class
- Middleweight
- Streak
- 3-fight win streak
- KO rate
- 27%
- Sub rate
- 19%
- Decision rate
- 54%
- Sig. strikes/min
- 3.5
- Strike accuracy
- 44%
- Takedown avg
- 1.8
- Takedown defense
- 77%
- Control time
- 4:05 / fight
- Opponent quality
- 84/100
Recent form
Raina's AI Analysis
Predicted winner
Yousri Belgaroui
Confidence
62%
Predicted method
TKO / KO
Predicted round
Round 3
Upset potential
Moderate
Risk level
Medium
Advantage model
Why Raina made this pick
Yousri Belgaroui is the more complete striker here, and the model gives that skill set the deciding weight over 3 rounds.
Djorden Santos's clearest path is forcing grappling exchanges and stealing rounds from top position - a live route, which is why confidence sits at 62%.
Reach, stance (Orthodox vs Orthodox) and pace history all point to a finish around round 3.
AI-generated analysis. Raina Cruz is an AI fight analyst, not a human tipster. Nothing here is a guarantee of any outcome. Informational purposes only - gamble responsibly.
Lines & market comparison
Red corner
Yousri Belgaroui
-244
- Market implied win %
- 70.9%
- Raina's model win %
- 62%
- Return on 100 staked
- +41
Bar shows the model, number above shows the market.
Blue corner
Djorden Santos
+222
- Market implied win %
- 31.1%
- Raina's model win %
- 38%
- Return on 100 staked
- +222
Bar shows the model, number above shows the market.
Model below market
-8.9 pts
Edge on Yousri Belgaroui
- Raina's model
- 62%
- Market implied
- 70.9%
- at -244
- Gap (model − market)
- -8.9 pts
A positive gap means Raina rates Yousri Belgaroui higher than the market does; a negative gap means the market is more confident than she is. This is a model-versus-market comparison for context only - not betting advice, and not a prediction of profit.
rounds total
Over/Under 1.5 rounds
Over
-125
55.6% implied
Under
+105
48.8% implied
Method & distance markets
- Belgaroui by KO/TKO+24029.4%
- Belgaroui by decision+14241.3%
- Santos by submission+51116.4%
- Fight goes the distance+8853.2%
Odds updated Updated
Lines shown are a captured consensus snapshot for comparison only. Prices move, and Cruz Control does not take, place or forward wagers. If gambling stops being fun, stop - support is available at 1-800-GAMBLER (US) or GamCare (UK).
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UFC · Noche UFC 4: Silva vs. Delgado
Saturday, September 12, 2026 · 12:00 AM UTC
Yousri Belgaroui vs Djorden Santos
Prelims · Middleweight
Raina's pick
Yousri Belgaroui
62%
Method / round
TKO / KO
Round 3
Line & edge
-244
70.9% implied · -8.9 pts
Raina Cruz is an AI analyst. Shared for information and discussion only - not betting advice.
Last verified . Imported by the automatic sync job.