Umar Nurmagomedov vs Song Yadong
Main Event · Bantamweight · UFC
Umar Nurmagomedov
20-1-0
- Age
- 30
- Height
- 173 cm
- Reach
- 178 cm
- Stance
- Orthodox
- Weight class
- Bantamweight
- Streak
- 2-fight win streak
- KO rate
- 25%
- Sub rate
- 30%
- Decision rate
- 45%
- Sig. strikes/min
- 4.3
- Strike accuracy
- 55%
- Takedown avg
- 3.6
- Takedown defense
- 82%
- Control time
- 5:40 / fight
- Opponent quality
- 92/100
Recent form
Recent fight history
- Wvs Deiveson Figueiredo - Decision (Unanimous)UFC 324 · 2026-01-24
- Wvs Mario Bautista - Decision (Unanimous)UFC 321 · 2025-10-25
- Lvs Merab Dvalishvili - Decision (Unanimous)UFC 311 · 2025-01-18
- Wvs Cory Sandhagen - Decision (Unanimous)UFC on ABC 7 · 2024-08-03
Song Yadong
23-9-1
- Age
- 28
- Height
- 173 cm
- Reach
- 175 cm
- Stance
- Orthodox
- Weight class
- Bantamweight
- Streak
- 1-fight win streak
- KO rate
- 43%
- Sub rate
- 9%
- Decision rate
- 48%
- Sig. strikes/min
- 4.6
- Strike accuracy
- 47%
- Takedown avg
- 1.3
- Takedown defense
- 66%
- Control time
- 2:10 / fight
- Opponent quality
- 88/100
Recent form
Recent fight history
- Wvs Deiveson Figueiredo - Submission (Guillotine Choke)UFC Fight Night 277 · 2026-05-30
- Lvs Sean O'Malley - Decision (Unanimous)UFC 324 · 2026-01-24
- Wvs Henry Cejudo - Technical Decision (Unanimous)UFC Fight Night 252 · 2025-02-22
- Lvs Petr Yan - Decision (Unanimous)UFC 299 · 2024-03-09
Raina's AI Analysis
Predicted winner
Umar Nurmagomedov
Confidence
76%
Predicted method
Decision
Predicted round
Distance (5 rounds)
Upset potential
Low
Risk level
Low
Advantage model
Why Raina made this pick
Umar's 3.6 takedowns per 15 minutes against Song's 66% takedown defence is the widest measurable gap on this card.
Song's power is real - 43% of his wins are knockouts - but Umar has been dropped zero times in 21 professional fights.
Five rounds favour the wrestler: Song's output is front-loaded, and Umar's 82% takedown defence removes the scramble equaliser.
The market's -450 line and the model's 76% both point the same way, so there is no betting edge here even though the pick is strong.
AI-generated analysis. Raina Cruz is an AI fight analyst, not a human tipster. Nothing here is a guarantee of any outcome. Informational purposes only - gamble responsibly.
Lines & market comparison
Red corner
Umar Nurmagomedov
-450
- Market implied win %
- 81.8%
- Raina's model win %
- 76%
- Return on 100 staked
- +22
Bar shows the model, number above shows the market.
Blue corner
Song Yadong
+350
- Market implied win %
- 22.2%
- Raina's model win %
- 24%
- Return on 100 staked
- +350
Bar shows the model, number above shows the market.
Model below market
-5.8 pts
Edge on Umar Nurmagomedov
- Raina's model
- 76%
- Market implied
- 81.8%
- at -450
- Gap (model − market)
- -5.8 pts
A positive gap means Raina rates Umar Nurmagomedov higher than the market does; a negative gap means the market is more confident than she is. This is a model-versus-market comparison for context only - not betting advice, and not a prediction of profit.
rounds total
Over/Under 4.5 rounds
Over
-165
62.3% implied
Under
+135
42.6% implied
Method & distance markets
- Nurmagomedov by decision-10551.2%
- Nurmagomedov by submission+32023.8%
- Song by KO/TKO+55015.4%
- Fight goes the distance-14058.3%
Odds updated Updated
Lines shown are a captured consensus snapshot for comparison only. Prices move, and Cruz Control does not take, place or forward wagers. If gambling stops being fun, stop - support is available at 1-800-GAMBLER (US) or GamCare (UK).
Share this pick
UFC · UFC Fight Night: Nurmagomedov vs Song
Saturday, August 29, 2026 · 10:00 AM UTC
Umar Nurmagomedov vs Song Yadong
Main Event · Bantamweight
Raina's pick
Umar Nurmagomedov
76%
Method / round
Decision
Distance (5 rounds)
Line & edge
-450
81.8% implied · -5.8 pts
Raina Cruz is an AI analyst. Shared for information and discussion only - not betting advice.
Last verified . Matchups and records checked by the desk against the promotion's official card.