Xiong Jingnan vs Julia Polastri
Prelims · Women's Strawweight · UFC
Xiong Jingnan
“The Panda”
19-3-0
- Age
- 38
- Height
- 165 cm
- Reach
- 168 cm
- Stance
- Orthodox
- Weight class
- Women's Strawweight
- Streak
- 3-fight win streak
- KO rate
- 63%
- Sub rate
- 14%
- Decision rate
- 23%
- Sig. strikes/min
- 5.1
- Strike accuracy
- 50%
- Takedown avg
- 0.6
- Takedown defense
- 65%
- Control time
- 0:08 / fight
- Opponent quality
- 85/100
Recent form
Julia Polastri
14-6-0
- Age
- 30
- Height
- 163 cm
- Reach
- 166 cm
- Stance
- Orthodox
- Weight class
- Women's Strawweight
- Streak
- 4-fight win streak
- KO rate
- 39%
- Sub rate
- 22%
- Decision rate
- 39%
- Sig. strikes/min
- 3.7
- Strike accuracy
- 52%
- Takedown avg
- 1.4
- Takedown defense
- 76%
- Control time
- 5:45 / fight
- Opponent quality
- 79/100
Recent form
Raina's AI Analysis
Predicted winner
Julia Polastri
Confidence
69%
Predicted method
Decision
Predicted round
Distance (3 rounds)
Upset potential
Moderate
Risk level
Medium
Advantage model
Why Raina made this pick
Julia Polastri is the more complete all-rounder here, and the model gives that skill set the deciding weight over 3 rounds.
Xiong Jingnan's clearest path is landing early power before the fight settles - a live route, which is why confidence sits at 69%.
Reach, stance (Orthodox vs Orthodox) and pace history all point to a fight that goes to the officials.
AI-generated analysis. Raina Cruz is an AI fight analyst, not a human tipster. Nothing here is a guarantee of any outcome. Informational purposes only - gamble responsibly.
Lines & market comparison
Red corner
Xiong Jingnan
+264
- Market implied win %
- 27.5%
- Raina's model win %
- 31%
- Return on 100 staked
- +264
Bar shows the model, number above shows the market.
Blue corner
Julia Polastri
-293
- Market implied win %
- 74.6%
- Raina's model win %
- 69%
- Return on 100 staked
- +34
Bar shows the model, number above shows the market.
Model below market
-5.6 pts
Edge on Julia Polastri
- Raina's model
- 69%
- Market implied
- 74.6%
- at -293
- Gap (model − market)
- -5.6 pts
A positive gap means Raina rates Julia Polastri higher than the market does; a negative gap means the market is more confident than she is. This is a model-versus-market comparison for context only - not betting advice, and not a prediction of profit.
rounds total
Over/Under 2.5 rounds
Over
+110
47.6% implied
Under
-135
57.4% implied
Method & distance markets
- Polastri by KO/TKO+30224.9%
- Polastri by decision+21032.3%
- Jingnan by submission+36221.6%
- Fight goes the distance+9152.4%
Odds updated Updated
Lines shown are a captured consensus snapshot for comparison only. Prices move, and Cruz Control does not take, place or forward wagers. If gambling stops being fun, stop - support is available at 1-800-GAMBLER (US) or GamCare (UK).
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UFC · UFC Fight Night: Nurmagomedov vs Song
Saturday, August 29, 2026 · 10:00 AM UTC
Xiong Jingnan vs Julia Polastri
Prelims · Women's Strawweight
Raina's pick
Julia Polastri
69%
Method / round
Decision
Distance (3 rounds)
Line & edge
-293
74.6% implied · -5.6 pts
Raina Cruz is an AI analyst. Shared for information and discussion only - not betting advice.
Last verified . Matchups and records checked by the desk against the promotion's official card.